Iran lobbed hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in April in the hope of changing the rules of engagement: Israel had struck an Iranian consulate in Damascus, and Tehran sought to deter any further such direct actions against its interests. Those hopes were shattered last week when an operation attributed to Israel took out Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political chief, on Iranian soil. Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of President Masud Pezeshkian.
The badly humiliated Iranian regime now seems poised to launch a new attack on Israel—one that Western officials believe is imminent. The Jordanian foreign minister made a weekend trip to Tehran, the first of its kind since 2005, but seems not to have changed the will of Tehran’s leadership. (Notably, the minister reportedly told Iran that Amman wouldn’t open its airspace to attacks by Iran, the United States, or Israel, which could mean that it will shoot down Israel-bound Iranian missiles over its skies, just as it did back in April.) Today, Iran’s foreign ministry held a reception for ambassadors based in Tehran, to set out its legal case for striking Israel. On the same day, Russia’s national security adviser was in Tehran, holding meetings with Iran’s top military officials. Moscow claimed to have arranged this trip months ago, but it coincided exactly with the U.S. Centcom Commander Michael Kurilla’s visit to Israel.
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