Late March is happy season in Iran as the festival of Nowruz marks the end of winter and the start of a new calendar year. But the government of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian had little to celebrate even as it marked its first Nowruz, having received blow after blow last month.
His influential vice President for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, was forced to resign. His finance minister, Abdolnaser Hemmati, was impeached by the hardliner-dominated Parliament. He was unable to push forward key promises he made about internet freedom, since he doesn’t control the committee that decides on the matter.
But perhaps most importantly, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had declared opposition to negotiating with the US, which Dr Pezeshkian and his political camp saw as key to the country’s gravest problems. Without talking to Washington, how could Tehran get it to lift a range of sanctions and move towards resolving the country’s economic challenges?
Iran’s economic malaise was visible throughout the harsh winter. It was forced to undergo unprecedented electricity cuts and organised shutdown of businesses. The exchange rate of the rial to the US dollar, which is usually a reliable indicator of how the economy is faring, told a sorry tale about Dr Pezeshkian’s time in office.
It was at about 600,000 rials to a dollar when Dr Pezeshkian was elected last summer. In recent weeks, it went as high as 1 million rials. Many Iranians have called on the President to resign since he has been unable to realise any of his big election campaign promises.
But Mr Khamenei’s volte-face, which launched a new phase of US-Iran talks, has now given the Pezeshkian administration a new confidence. One could even argue that the negotiations have extended a new lease of life to it.
One reason for this is that even the mere fact of the talks taking place has given an economic boost to the country. In recent days, the rial’s value has improved marginally, with more appreciation expected in the near future.
If this is the outcome of one round of talks, it’s not hard to see them having an even grander impact should they actually succeed. Even a partial lifting of the sanctions could significantly boost the Iranian economy.
Dr Pezeshkian is also benefiting from establishment’s consensus on the negotiations.
Of course, talking to the US remains controversial in the Iranian political landscape. Certain hardliners continue to attack the negotiating team, especially as Iran comes close to offering concessions to secure a deal. The notoriously hardline state TV riles against them, as does an occasional editorial in the daily Kayhan. In the north-eastern city of Mashhad, the arch-conservative Friday prayer leader, Ahmad Alamolhoda, has spoken out against the talks as hurting “national pride”.
But these voices of dissent are relatively muted. The political debate is nowhere as heated as it was during the lead-up to the 2015 nuclear deal when former president Hassan Rouhani and his then top diplomat, Mr Zarif, became the target of attacks by powerful conservative factions such as those leading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
This time around, much of the establishment favours engagement. Even outlets affiliated to the IRGC, such as the daily Vatan-e Emrooz now speak relatively approvingly of them.
Unlike Mr Rouhani, who was a polarising figure with decades of experience in the establishment’s security echelons, Dr Pezeshkian is a more consensual politician who has promised to lead a government of “national reconciliation”.
On Sunday, when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reported on his Muscat talks to the Cabinet, Dr Pezeshkian thanked Mr Khamenei for having approved the talks. He has tried not to politicise the process and it helps that Mr Araghchi, too, gives the impression of being a calm diplomat compared to the politically ambitious Mr Zarif.
Even some conservative commentators have praised Dr Pezeshkian’s posture on the talks. The conservative activist Abdollah Ganji compared him favourably to Mr Rouhani for two reasons. First, for not harshly attacking critics of the talks as the previous president did. Second, for not creating high expectations about the talks. Abbas Salimi Namin, a conservative journalist, praised Dr Pezehksian for “not trying to make a political show out of the negotiations”.
All of this sits well with Dr Pezeshkian’s non-confrontational approach and his attempt to lead a big tent. This approach was heavily questioned when Parliament dismissed Mr Hemmati, the finance minister, last month. But conservative support for the nuclear talks as well as more controversial measures, such as Dr Pezeshkian’s refusal to implement a draconian hijab bill, gives new credence to it.
Buoyed by these more favourable winds, Dr Pezeshkian is set to soon introduce Ali Tayebnia as his new finance minister, pending parliamentary approval. Mr Tayebnia, who was also Mr Rouhani’s finance minister from 2013 to 2017, is a known economist and one of Iran’s best-known technocrats. His joining the government will give it new verve.
Dr Pezeshkian has also filled another important vacancy lately. Mohsen Esmaeili, a law professor at the University of Tehran and a former member of the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council, was appointed Dr Pezeshkian’s Vice President for Strategic and Parliamentary Affairs. He thus replaced both Mr Zarif and Shahram Dabiri, Dr Pezeshkian’s parliamentary liaison, who had to resign after he went on an expensive private trip to Argentina and Antarctica. Mr Esmaeili is a weighty addition to the cabinet: a respected jurist and the only non-cleric to ever be elected to the Assembly of Experts.
Still, Dr Pezeshkian’s reversal of fortunes shouldn’t be exaggerated. In all cases, the president, doesn’t make any of Iran’s most important decisions. All important calls are made either by Mr Khamenei or the National Security Council.
There is also no guarantee that talks with the US will continue to go well and their collapse could spell disaster for the President, especially if Iran finds itself embroiled in military conflict. His entire gambit has been to make peace with the rest of the region and the world. He is not meant to be a wartime president.
For now, Dr Pezeshkian enjoys calmer political waters. But if he wants to leave his mark, he will need a lot more than that.
